For 364 days of the year, I am generally ambivalent toward the Oscars – all I want to do is watch movies, damn it! However, as it happens every year, the buzz of Oscar Sunday gets the best of me and my interest soars. Sure, it’s all politics in the end, but I mostly use the ceremony as an excuse to stay in, get drunk, and place bets on the winners. And as the final hours until the event start to wind down, I’ll present my personal predictions on who will be taking home their golden statue. Along with this share my own thoughts on who I think should win – and trust me, I disagree with the Academy a lot.

It should also be noted that I’m only counting categories where I’ve seen at least two of what’s nominated. I’ve seen a lot of the nominated films, but not exactly all of what’s nominated for every category presented here. Regardless, this is my blog and I’ll do what I wanna. You can take or leave my predictions as you wish.

Anyway, here they are.

BEST PICTURE

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

Likely winner: 12 Years a Slave
My pick: Her

BEST ACTOR

Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Likely winner: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
My pick: Bruce Dern (Nebraska)

BEST ACTRESS

Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

Likely winner: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
My pick: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Likely winner: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
My pick: Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska)

Likely winner: Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)
My pick: Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)

BEST DIRECTOR

American Hustle (David O. Russell)
Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón)
Nebraska (Alexander Payne)
12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)

Likely winner: Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón)
My pick: 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)

BEST ANIMATED FILM

The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises

Likely winner: Frozen
My pick: Frozen

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Grandmaster (Philippe Le Sourd)
Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel)
Nebraska (Phedon Papamichael)
Prisoners (Roger A. Deakins)

Likely winner: Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)
My pick: The Grandmaster (Philippe Le Sourd)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

American Hustle (Michael Wilkinson)
The Grandmaster (William Chang Suk Ping)
The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin)
The Invisible Woman (Michael O’Connor)
12 Years a Slave (Patricia Norris)

Likely winner: American Hustle (Michael Wilkinson)
My pick: The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin)

BEST DOCUMENTARY

The Act of Killing
Cutie & the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
20 Feet From Stardom

Likely winner: The Square
My pick: The Act of Killing

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
12 Years a Slave

Likely winner: Gravity
My pick: Captain Phillips or 12 Years a Slave

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Book Thief (John Williams)
Gravity (Steven Price)
Her (William Butler, Owen Pallett)
Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)
Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman)

Likely winner: Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)
My pick: Her (William Butler, Owen Pallett)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Happy” – Despicable Me 2
“Let It Go” – Frozen
“The Moon Song” – Her
“Ordinary Love” – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Likely winner: “Let It Go” – Frozen
My pick: “The Moon Song” – Her

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Her
12 Years a Slave

Likely winner: Gravity
My pick: Her (though I’d be okay with any of these winning)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Feral
Get a Horse!
Mr. Hublot
Possessions
Room on a Broom

Likely winner: Get a Horse!
Room on a Broom

BEST SOUND EDITING

All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor

Likely winner: Gravity
My pick: Gravity

BEST SOUND MIXING

Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor

Likely winner: Gravity
My pick: Inside Llewyn Davis

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Before Midnight (Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke)
Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope)
12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)

Likely winner: 12 Years a Slave
My pick: Before Midnight

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell)
Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack)
Her (Spike Jonze)
Nebraska (Bob Nelson)

Likely winner: Dallas Buyers Club
My pick: Her